The Bipartisan Innovation Act that funds advanced manufacturing and semiconductors likely will not pass prior to the August Congressional break. The House and Senate are in a formal conference committee to negotiate the differences between the bipartisan Senate bill and the House measure, which passed with only a single GOP vote. The Democrats’ provisions on unions and climate change are now largely gone. 

Rumors around Washington is that roughly 20% of the bill is done, but external factors are now weighing in that all but guarantees the legislation to combat China will not pass prior to the August Congressional break. Some are considering trying to move a slimmed-down version of the roughly $200 billion measure in the coming week, but it is unlikely the votes exist to do so. At issue is unrelated to the foundations of the bill – Republican Senators want Democrats to stop working on legislation that would increase taxes under an authority expiring on September 30 before they commit to moving the China competition bill. 

Currently, the central focus of the China competition legislation is providing $52.7 billion to incentivize the manufacturing of semiconductors domestically, but it also includes language on supply-chain resiliency and support for additive manufacturing. Many of us do still see a path forward for a U.S. innovation bill, but there will be more road bumps in the coming weeks.